Restrictor Plate Racing: What would happen without the double-yellow line?

The last few races at restrictor plate tracks have caused controversy over the double-yellow line rule NASCAR has in place at Daytona and Talladega. Arguably two of the most intense racetracks on the NASCAR circuit, the double-yellow line rule is in place to keep drivers from racing in the apron below the racing surface.
 
The rule has caused some controversial and spectacular finishes in the race. Daytona and Talladega always leave fans talking as it is, but recently the double-yellow line rule has had more people talking than the racing itself.
 
Debate has been going back and forth within NASCAR on whether or not to keep it in place. On Thursday, during NASCAR’s media week, NASCAR announced that feedback from competitors had shown that they’d like to keep the rule. However, some fans are still in favor of getting rid of it.
 
Fans don’t like the double-yellow line rule because of the aforementioned controversy and potentially dangerous finishes. But, one has to wonder…. Would these races have been substantially different without the rule? Would it have really made as big of a difference to keep it?
 
I’m going to grab a few races from the last few years where the double yellow line rule clearly played a part in the outcome of the race. Then, I’m going to look at what could have happened without the rule in place. Constructive (key word there!) criticism is more than welcome… unless you agree, in which case scratch that last comment!
 
By the way, this is not a plea to NASCAR for or against the double-yellow line rule. It is only to generate discussion and for you to decide whether or not you really do, or do not, want the rule in place.
 
Enjoy!
 
2009 Coke Zero 400 powered by Coca-Cola at Daytona International Speedway: In the July Daytona race, Kyle Busch and Tony Stewart ended up in a showdown on the final lap. Busch got a push from teammate Denny Hamlin coming to the white flag, allowing him to get around Stewart. However, the fun had just begun.
 
Stewart clung to the back of Busch’s car like his life depended on it, and began pushing on the back of the No. 18 trying to loosen him up a bit. It worked. Coming out of turn four, Stewart gave Busch a shove, and Busch slid to the bottom of the racetrack to try and block, coming to the checkered flag almost sideways. Busch went up to block a second time and this time Stewart didn’t budge. The rear end of Busch’s car caught the front end of Stewart’s, and Busch slid up the track and into the wall causing a multi-car pileup.
 
No one was hurt, but it was a heck of a finish!
 
Best Case Scenario: With two hard-nosed competitors like Busch and Stewart racing against each other, there may have been a crash even without the yellow line rule. However, the yellow line is what set this one up.
 
Without the double-yellow line rule, Stewart wouldn’t have had to fight so hard for that lower lane. He could have just inched his way underneath Busch (assuming his car was handling properly), and made a pass in the apron. He would have risked sliding up into Busch after making the pass, but it would have been a different lane to work with. It also may have been more likely that someone would have drafted with Stewart, leaving the 18 car on the high side and without help. Thus, a last minute move by Stewart, or any of the competitors behind him, could have made a move for the win causing another fantastic, heart-stopping Daytona finish!
 
Worst Case Scenario: However, there may have been an even more frightening crash had the double-yellow line not been in place. Judging by the way Busch was racing he didn’t want any car running alongside him coming to the finish. So, if Stewart had dove underneath Busch, similar to what he did when he bumped him, there’s a chance that Busch would have slid down the track and blocked him the same way he slid up the track.
 
One of two things could happen:
Stewart could move down ever further to prevent Kyle from sliding across his bumper, putting himself in the grass. Stewart would then have to slide back up onto the track out of the infield. Busch would probably still be right alongside Stewart, taking both he and the No. 18 out. This would have caused another big pileup as both cars would have slid up into the oncoming pack. A surprise winner would most likely have been in whoever was able to survive the crash.
 
Now, Stewart could also make the choice not to block. Once Stewart dove to the bottom he could make the decision to stay there, hold the throttle to the floor, and not budge until the finish. Busch, as mentioned earlier, didn’t really seem too keen on the idea of a drag race coming to the finish. So, again, Busch would probably have attempted to block Stewart. Only, this time, Stewart doesn’t move. Busch would then slide across Stewart’s front bumper and into the grass. Busch could either go airborne, barrel-rolling through the infield or at the very least sliding across the infield grass. It’s likely that this would only be a single-car crash (Busch), and Stewart would probably go on to win the race.
 
2009 Aaron’s 499 at Talladega Superspeedway: This race made national highlight reels for weeks. Brad Keselowski had pushed Carl Edwards out in front of Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Ryan Newman by several car lengths coming to the white flag. No other drivers had a shot at the win as Newman, Earnhardt, Keselowski, and Edwards all had a significant lead over the drivers behind them.
 
Newman and Earnhardt had pretty much lost their shot as well by the time they reached the frontstretch. As Keselowski and Edwards came to the finish line, Keselowski slowly started inching up the racetrack. Edwards took the bait, and as Edwards moved up to block, Keselowski moved below Edwards to try and make the pass. Edwards turned down to block, slid across the hood of the No. 09 (Keselowski), and ended up going airborne after Newman’s windshield smacked the rear end of the No. 99 (Edwards). Edwards flew up into the catch fence, sending debris flying into the grandstands, injuring several. Brad Keselowski went on to win the race.
 
Best Case Scenario: Similar to the Stewart/Busch incident, Keselowski could have had the extra room and moved below the line to try and make a pass. There wouldn’t have been much room, but we could have had an exciting side-by-side finish to the checkered flag, and the fans would have been kept safe.
 
Worst Case Scenario: This scenario could also have been similar to the Busch/Stewart WCS (worst case scenario, work with me here people…) in that Edwards may not have given Keselowski the bottom. Edwards may have pushed Keselowski lower and into the grass, causing Keselowski to slide back up into Edwards. This may not have been as big a deal, though, as there really weren’t any other cars around these two except for Earnhardt and Newman. Again, a couple of things could happen:
 
Earnhardt and Newman could have been caught up in the wreck, allowing whoever was leading the large pack behind (possibly Marcos Ambrose) to win the race.
 
Earnhardt and Newman could also have avoided the collision and had a drag race of their own. Who would have won the race is an entirely different discussion for another time.
 
2008 Amp Energy 500 at Talladega Superspeedway: This race is still debated, even though it’s been over a year since it happened. Stewart was trying to win his first race at Talladega, but had to fight off a couple of Dale Earnhardt Inc. (now Earnhardt Ganassi Racing) cars to get it. For the most part, the cars stayed single file the entire last lap. However, coming to the checkered flag, Regan Smith decided he had had enough waiting around. He shot to the high side, baited Tony up there, then drove to the bottom to try and make the pass.
 
Stewart moved down to try and block Smith, and Smith moved down below the yellow line to avoid contact and proceeded to make the pass on the apron. Smith crossed the finish line ahead of Stewart, but Stewart was avoided the win as Smith was penalized for making a pass below the yellow line.
 
Best Case Scenario: Obviously, without the yellow line rule, Smith would have won the race in what was an exciting finish. Fans would have enjoyed seeing a first-time winner, and having a win under his belt may have helped Smith get a better ride with a better team.
 
Worst Case Scenario: Let’s assume for a minute that Smith had obeyed the yellow line rule, and held his ground when Stewart came down to block. Smith would probably have still won the race, but Stewart’s fate may have been a bit different. If Smith hadn’t moved down, there’s little doubt that Stewart would have slid across Smith’s hood and either ended up in the grass. As with the Busch wreck, it could have just been a slide through the grass or Stewart could have ended up airborne. Nonetheless, Stewart would not have ended up a winner and Stewart would probably be credited with a finish similar to what Smith received with the penalty.
 
 
Obviously, simple analysis won’t change the outcome of any of these races. What’s done is done. But, NASCAR has clearly shown they are open for suggestions and will make decisions based on feedback from competitors and fans. While the double-yellow line rule will stay in place for now, there still seems to be room for open discussion.
 
So, now it’s your turn. Based on these scenarios, do you want the double-yellow line rule to stay in place or would you rather it fade away, never to rear its head again?